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The Go/No-Go Guide

Most small federal contractors lose bids long before the proposal goes out. They lose them at go/no-go. They spend two weeks writing a response to an opportunity that was never realistically theirs, and then the real opportunity hits and they've got nothing left in the tank. Go/no-go is the most important decision in federal contracting and it's the one contractors spend the least time on.

This guide is the back-end of the opportunity scorer. The tool gives you a number. This guide explains what the number means, how to read a SAM.gov opportunity faster, and the specific patterns that should make you skip even when the score looks fine.

What a score actually means

The scorer produces a 0-100 number across six factors: NAICS match (30 pts), size eligibility (20), set-aside fit (20), geographic fit (10), deadline feasibility (10), past performance relevance (10). The number is deterministic. Same inputs, same score, every time.

That's the point. A score of 72 means the same thing Tuesday as it does Thursday. It's not an AI vibe. It's a checklist rolled up into a number you can use as a go/no-go anchor.

Score buckets:

  • 0-39: Skip. Missing something fundamental. NAICS mismatch, size ineligibility, or certification requirements you don't hold. Don't write a proposal hoping the contracting officer will make an exception. They won't.
  • 40-59: Consider. Eligible, but not a natural fit. You'll compete against firms with tighter alignment. Pursue only if you have a specific capability advantage, a teaming arrangement that closes gaps, or strong past performance in exactly this NAICS.
  • 60-79: Pursue. Real fit. Start capture now, not later. You're eligible, you match the set-aside, and the scope is inside your wheelhouse.
  • 80-100: Strong Fit. This opportunity was written for businesses like yours. If you're not submitting, a direct competitor is winning a contract you should have.

A high score doesn't guarantee a win. A low score almost guarantees a loss. Use it as a filter, not a magic 8-ball.

How to read a SAM.gov opportunity fast

A SAM.gov opportunity posting has a lot of fields. Most of them don't matter for go/no-go. These are the ones that do, in the order you should read them:

1. Set-aside type (30 seconds)

First thing on every notice. Look at the set-aside label. If it's "Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business Set-Aside" and you're not certified SDVOSB, you're done reading. If it's full and open, no certification check needed. Every other set-aside has a specific certification gate; if you don't hold it, skip.

Set-asides to recognize:

  • SDVOSB set-aside: SDVOSB certification required
  • WOSB/EDWOSB set-aside: WOSB (and EDWOSB for EDWOSB sole-source) required
  • HUBZone set-aside: HUBZone certification required
  • 8(a) set-aside: 8(a) certification required
  • Total Small Business Set-Aside: any small business can bid
  • Full & Open: no set-aside, anyone small or large can bid

2. NAICS code (30 seconds)

Is the opportunity's NAICS in your registered codes? Not "close to" one of your codes. The exact six-digit NAICS. Contracting officers search on exact NAICS. If you're not registered under 541512 and the opportunity is under 541512, you're not in their results.

If the NAICS isn't yours, you have three options: skip, register under that NAICS in SAM.gov and bid (legal but suspicious if your capability isn't aligned), or team with a prime that holds the NAICS.

3. Response deadline (15 seconds)

How many days out? Under 7 days is aggressive for anything beyond simple commercial items. Under 21 days is typical. Over 30 days is comfortable but also signals either a complex scope or a procurement that's been hanging around.

Match the deadline against your proposal turnaround. If you've never turned around a 10-day proposal before, now isn't the time to start unless the opportunity is so perfect that you reshuffle the team to meet it.

4. Place of performance (30 seconds)

Where does the work happen? On-site at a federal facility, in a specific state or region, or remote? Travel costs eat margin. Security clearances tied to specific installations filter out firms without existing cleared personnel. Remote work opens the aperture.

If the place of performance is inside your operating footprint, this is a plus. If it's across the country and requires on-site presence, model the travel cost before committing.

5. Estimated value or award history (1 minute)

Sometimes shown directly on the notice, sometimes inferrable from award history. Look at:

  • The opportunity's estimated value, if posted
  • Prior awards under the same solicitation number or NAICS
  • Award history of the incumbent (if there's a named incumbent)

Contracts significantly smaller than your typical opportunity size eat margin through overhead. Contracts significantly larger may exceed your bonding capacity or stretch your bench too thin. Fit the opportunity against your actual capacity, not your optimistic one.

6. Scope and Statement of Work (2-3 minutes)

Skim the SOW. Look for:

  • Specific technical requirements that filter out generalists
  • Past performance requirements ("must have performed three similar contracts of $X value in the last five years")
  • Key personnel requirements ("Project Manager must hold PMP and active Secret clearance")
  • Certifications or compliance frameworks (CMMC Level 2, FedRAMP Moderate, ISO 27001)

Each of these is a potential filter. If you can't meet a mandatory requirement, you're out regardless of fit. If you can only partially meet it, you're teaming.

If you can't read the full SOW in 3 minutes without getting lost, the scope is probably beyond your firm's comfortable execution capacity. Worth a gut check before committing.

The three biggest go/no-go mistakes

1. Pursuing on NAICS match alone

"The NAICS matches" is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. I've seen firms spend three weeks on proposals under a NAICS they hold but where the specific work was outside their actual capability. They get filtered in source selection for insufficient past performance, or they win and can't perform. Both outcomes are worse than a no-bid.

NAICS is a 30-point factor out of 100 for a reason. It's the biggest single factor but it's not the whole score.

2. Ignoring the set-aside competition pool

A "Total Small Business Set-Aside" is open to any small business. That sounds great until you realize every small business in that NAICS is competing. The competition pool for a TSB set-aside is much larger than for a specific category set-aside like SDVOSB or HUBZone.

If you hold specialty certifications, filter your pipeline aggressively for opportunities that match those certifications. You'll have a better odds ratio bidding on fewer, better-matched set-asides than bidding on every TSB opportunity you can find.

3. Assuming the incumbent will lose

Most federal contracts have an incumbent. Most incumbents win their re-compete. The stat varies by study but somewhere between 60-75% of re-competes go to the existing contractor. That's not because the process is rigged. It's because incumbents have:

  • Performance history under the exact scope
  • Relationships with the contracting officer and program office
  • Infrastructure already in place (cleared personnel, facilities, tooling)
  • Understanding of the agency's priorities that outsiders don't have

You can beat an incumbent. You need a specific advantage — pricing, new capability, or a flagged performance issue on the incumbent's record. Without that, you're bidding the incumbent's contract for a 25-40% chance of winning and 100% of the proposal cost.

Check the opportunity for incumbent signals (prior award data, named incumbent on industry day) before committing proposal resources.

When to team vs. pursue solo

Two filters:

Team if:

  • You can't meet a mandatory past performance requirement on your own
  • The scope exceeds your execution capacity (bench, infrastructure, subject matter expertise)
  • A specialty certification would advantage the bid and you don't hold it
  • The opportunity is a logical foothold contract but too large for solo

Pursue solo if:

  • You can meet all mandatory requirements
  • Past performance directly aligns with the scope
  • The opportunity size fits your execution capacity cleanly
  • You have time to respond without reshuffling the team

Teaming costs you margin (usually a 70/30 or 80/20 split) and adds coordination overhead. Solo bids keep all the margin but require you to carry the full proposal and execution load. Neither is inherently better. Match the decision to the specific opportunity.

What the scorer can't tell you

Three things the scorer doesn't evaluate, because they require judgment the tool can't make:

1. Incumbent strength

The tool doesn't know who the incumbent is or how they're performing. Check FPDS or USASpending for prior awards under the solicitation number or NAICS. An incumbent with multiple successful re-competes and no performance issues is a much harder target than one with a history of terminated contracts.

2. Agency relationship

If you've delivered three contracts at the agency and the contracting officer knows your work, your win probability is higher than a cold bid against a better-scoring competitor. The scorer uses the opportunity's NAICS and set-aside, not your history at the buying agency. Factor relationships in on top of the score.

3. Pricing strategy

The scorer is blind to pricing. A 75-score opportunity you win by pricing 15% below your cost structure is a worse outcome than a 45-score opportunity you skip. Use the wrap rate calculator to confirm your loaded rate covers the scope before pricing the bid.

Using the scorer effectively

The tool works best when you:

  1. Save your profile once. Primary NAICS, size, certifications, state. localStorage keeps it across sessions on the same device. Use the "copy profile URL" button to back it up if you use multiple devices.
  2. Score opportunities as you find them, not at end of week. The scoring is fast. The decision is easier when the opportunity is fresh.
  3. Use past performance keywords deliberately. The scorer uses them to check against the opportunity description. Keywords should be specific technical terms from your actual contracts, not marketing phrases.
  4. Read the AI narrative for pursue/strong-fit scores. The narrative surfaces specific capability gaps or next actions the deterministic breakdown doesn't capture.
  5. Share scores when teaming. The share URL lets you send a pre-scored opportunity to a potential teaming partner so they can see the fit before you spend time on a call.

Next steps

Use the opportunity scorer to score your current pipeline. Start with opportunities you've already decided to bid — the score should match your gut. If it doesn't, that's worth a pause.

If your NAICS portfolio isn't sorted yet, the NAICS recommender is the upstream tool. If your capability statement needs work, build one with the capability statement builder. If your wrap rate isn't defensible, start with the wrap rate calculator.

For help turning scored opportunities into actual wins — capture strategy, teaming decisions, proposal support — schedule a 15-minute consultation.